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Golden Globes 2019: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

on January 03, 2019, 7:30pm
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Best Director, Motion Picture

Roma (Netflix)

Roma (Netflix)

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Who Should Win: Spike Lee
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Amazing that half of the team behind Me, Myself, and Irene is gaining serious year-end buzz as a director. But while Peter Farrelly’s career reinvention has yielded impressive results, our attention lies elsewhere, and we assume the HFPA’s will as well. We’ve already argued that Spike Lee was the filmmaker of 2018, and will continue to do so, but whether his contentious feature will draw enough defenders remains to be seen. The safer bet seems to be Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, which pairs an oft-honored filmmaker with near-universal acclaim. We’d hardly be upset either way. —Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Vice (Annapurna)

Vice (Annapurna)

Christian Bale, Vice
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Who Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Will Win: Christian Bale

I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again: Best Actor is Christian Bale’s to lose in 2019, especially if Ethan Hawke of First Reformed is nowhere to be seen. For the Globes, Bale’s a lock, if only for his transformative performance. Well, he did get fat for this, thinks the average voter. In this case, though, they’re actually right, not that he just got fat (he did), but he delivered a hell of a performance — one of his best, which says something given his career. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman
Who Will Win: Olivia Colman

There’s a pretty wide swath of definitions for “comedy” represented in this category. The cringing realism of Charlize Theron’s work as a mother struggling to retain a sense of self collides with Constance Wu’s pitch-perfect update of the romantic comedy heroine for a new era. Emily Blunt spends most of Mary Poppins Returns looking like she’s having about as much fun as an actor’s ever had, and Elsie Fisher gave one of our favorite leading turns in 2018, period. Olivia Colman, however, is in a class all her own, granting a simultaneous humanity and terror to her Queen Anne that we can’t shake. The HFPA likely won’t be able to either. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born 2018

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper

Sure, Bohemian Rhapsody is the big blockbuster, and Rami Malek does the whole transformative thing like Bale, but there’s no real narrative to his win. The same goes for anyone else in this category, except for Bradley Cooper. A Star is Born is a legit frontrunner this season, and there surprisingly hasn’t been much backlash surrounding it, at least not to the level of, say, La La Land back in 2016/17. Politics aside, Cooper deserves this, though, as he pours his heart and soul into his performance in the same manner he does behind the camera. And seeing how there’s no way he wins Director over Cuaron, the Globes will likely credit him here as Jackson “Eddie Vedder” Maine. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Who Should Win: Lady Gaga
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga

Simply put, there is absolutely no way Lady Gaga loses this award. –Michael Roffman

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Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Green Book (Universal)

Green Book (Universal)

The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Crazy Rich Asians
Vice

What Should Win: The Favourite
What Will Win: Green Book

This one, as much as any category this year, is still anybody’s guess. Including ours. It really depends on what the HFPA sees fit to honor this year. Will it be the charming traditionalism of Poppins? The ferocious political cynicism of Vice? The lavish (and hugely successful) charm of Crazy Rich Asians? We’d love to see Yorgos Lanthimos’ mainstream breakthrough The Favourite take the top prize in advance of the Oscars announcements to further solidify its place, but we have a sneaking suspicion that it’ll be Green Book, a crowd-pleaser for the kind of crowd voting on this sort of thing. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Motion Picture, Drama

A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)

A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)

A Star is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther

What Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
What Will Win: A Star is Born

A Star is Born is great. It’s wonderful. In fact, it’s kind of unreal how wonderful it is, considering how it comes off like your typical awards favorite on the surface. That’s why it’s the quintessential Golden Globes movie and for once we’re totally fine with that. However, there is a possibility that Black Panther might eek out a win — you know, being a global phenomenon and all — but that’s about it. And even that’s a stretch. Of course, in a perfect world, we’d like to see Spike Lee go up there and stare down the crowd with eyes that say, “How about that?” In a perfect world. –Michael Roffman

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